Two hundred and twenty years ago last month (April 18-19 1775) Paul Revere made his famous ride. He and some buddies raced all over the Boston area. Unwilling to let sleeping dogs lie, they also warned sleeping patriots, their spouses, sheep and cattle that the Redcoats were coming. You can look it up.

Had they not given that warning you might be having tea and crumpets this morning at Starbucks.

But he did and the rest, as they say, is history.

But what if Paul Revere and the Raiders (I think that was the name of his group) had raised a ruckus that night and then what if the Redcoats didn't show up? And what if he did it again the next night. And the next. And the Redcoats failed to show. And potential patriots threw their shoes at him. Think about it.

Being awakened night after night with a threat that never materializes would get old fast.

Fast forward to today. Right now. Instead of Paul Revere, insert the phrase "Brain Drain". People have been warning about the impending brain drain for, well, for a very long time. One of these days they will be right, probably. If you doubt it, go to Google or Yahoo and type in the words "federal government brain drain." Then stand back.

Because your computer will practically melt down with articles and dire predictions that Uncle Sam, industry, whoever, whatever is about to lose his/their/its marbles. That is, within a short-time all the smart people, who know which buttons to push to make things run or stop as needed in government, will be basking around shuffle board courts in Florida.

Just as Paul Revere had pretty good intelligence about the British plans back then, the brain drain people have the numbers down cold. Example:

According to a 2005 report from the Partnership for Public Service, 40 percent of the Department of Homeland Security's managers and program analysts will be able to retire by 2009; 42 percent of the Senior Executive Service by 2010; 87 percent of critical Social Security workers by 20something; most Federal Aviation Administration air traffic controllers ready willing and able to depart about now. Etc.

A 1998 report from the Information Technology Resources Board warned of an imminent IT brain drain unless Uncle Sam shaped up and starting paying more attention (and money) to the IT community. It said 95,000 new IT folks would be needed every year through 2005, or else! Since its 2006, something must have worked!

Our neighbors to the north have their own issues. Canadian government officials and Canadian scholars, like Michael Dilworth, have warned of a different kind of brain drain. The problem they highlight is that so many highly skilled Canadians are heading south (that would be the U.S.) where they can make more money, pay lower taxes, be more appreciated, and won't have to scrape ice off their windshields so much.

In 2003, SASCOM Magazine (SAS is a human capital management group) warned that "nearly 70 percent of the 1.8 million U.S. federal employees are eligible to retire between now and 2011. And even though the entire 70 percent will not retire, OPM projects that 40 percent will leave the workforce..."

This is not to knock warnings or preparations for the (still) impending brain drain. It's got to happen some day. But maybe, in the interests of variety, we could put another spin on it. Also, dire warnings (even if true) lose their edge after awhile.

Maybe we could sometimes refer to the imminent or impending brain drain, once in awhile, as "promotion opportunities for survivors!"

To reach me: mcausey@federalnewsradio.com